Dear ICES friends,
We are delighted to present the latest issue of our bi-weekly newsletter.
Few relations are as crucial and valuable as the ones - past, present, and future - connecting
Europe and China. At ICES, we believe that regular knowledge-sharing can be the bedrock that empowers
mutually beneficial partnerships and the foundation for fruitful collaborations. Every first and
third week of the month, we highlight the latest developments and fresh ideas across various fields
to enhance cross-continental communication and understanding. We invite you to explore the key
news highlights, insights, and top event recommendations from the past two weeks.
The ICES' Takeaway from this Edition
As the 2026 year just started, profound geopolitical changes with long-lasting consequences,
including for Europe-China relations, are quickly unfolding. Indeed, both with the US
intervention in Venezuela and the declaration of intent to take control of Greenland, the
global order has been put into uncertainty and the transatlantic relationship is facing an
unprecedented challenge. In line with the National Security Strategy released last year, the
EU has witnessed the length to which its long-time ally is willing to go to project its
power. What now remains to be seen is to what extent this dramatic break in Europe-US
relations will imply for Europe-China ones. The first thing to watch is how the EU and
European countries will react to the escalating pressure from the USA, both in the short
term and long run.
This edition of the ICES biweekly bulletin also looks at development of EU-China relationship
with mixed orientations, including disputes on chipmakers, the minimum price for EVs that the
Commission issued in its guidelines, as well as the push for Europe to diversify its trade partners,
whether that be through the Mercosur deal greenlit by the Council, or the EU-India free trade
deals to come.
At any rate, against the backdrop of the shifting geopolitical
environment, it is unlikely that the Europe-China relationship will remain the same,
although the complexity of the interactions between the two sides will always be here to
stay.
ICES wishes you a pleasant read and a happy new year!
NEWS ROUND
THE WEEKS' HIGHLIGHTS: PROGRESS & PITFALLS
Commission issues Guidance Document on submission of price undertaking offers for
battery electric vehicles from China
Commission Website, Xinhua
and
Reuters, January 12, 2026
The EU released a Guidance Document for Chinese exporters of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) concerning price undertaking offers, including a minimum import price. China’s commerce ministry welcomed this progress.
Europe and China’s Feud Over Chips Is Reaching a Breaking Point
Bloomberg, January 12, 2026
After the chipmaker Nexperia BV was separated from Chinese ownership following a Dutch court decision, the company is now seeking to defend its independence.
EU-CHINA RELATIONS
Commission sets broad criteria to exclude foreign firms from public contracts
Euractiv, January 09, 2026
New guidelines published by the Commission will give added discretionary powers to the institution to prevent companies with foreign subsidies from accessing its procurement markets.
Irish PM calls for 'open trade' in talks with China's Xi
AFP, Euractiv, January 05, 2026
The Prime Minister for Ireland Micheal Martin pushed for having "open trade" talks with China as he visited Beijing.
EU to exert ‘maximum pressure’ on China, India to stop purchasing Russian oil
Euractiv, January 14, 2026
According to David O'Sullivan, EU's sanctions envoy, Brussels should put "maximum pressure" on China and India in an effort to have them stop buying Russian energy.
EU-China trade relations are in a deep freeze. They could be about to get even icier.
Politico, January 08, 2026
The EU will likely try to rebalance trade relations in 2026 with China, as both the trade deficit on Europe's end and the protective measures put in place by both blocs keep on disrupting global supply chains.
China’s Shein meets EU officials in Brussels after avoiding suspension in France
Politico, January 14, 2026
Donald Tang, the CEO of Shein, met with the European Commissioner for the Environment on Wednesday 14 January to defend the company’s sustainability and circular economy record.
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE INSIGHTS SELECTED BY THE ICES
Legality of US capture of Venezuela's Maduro in focus at United Nations
Reuters, January 04, 2026
The UN Security Council met on Monday 5 January to discuss, among others, the legality of the US kidnapping of Maduro in Venezuela.
Brussels upholds global cooperation as US withdraws from top UN climate body
Euractiv, January 08, 2026
Wopke Hoekstra, the EU’s climate commissioner, described America’s departure from the UNFCCC as “regrettable and unfortunate”.
ICES-NOTED REGIONAL ISSUES
Thailand-Cambodia ceasefire 'gradually' being implemented, says China
Reuters, January 05, 2026
At a news conference, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson assured that the agreement between Thailand and Cambodia was being “gradually” put into place, expressing hope for a “comprehensive” and “lasting” ceasefire.
China bans exports of military-related goods to Japan as dispute intensifies
SCMP, January 06, 2026
As the diplomatic row between Japan and China remains a strongly contentious issue, China banned the export of dual-use goods.
Mercosur: Brussels woos farm ministers with reciprocity, tariff concessions
Euractiv and Council of the EU, January 08, 2026
In a bid to convince enough member states to pass the Mercosur Agreement, the Commission offered concessions on tariffs and reciprocity. The strategy proved fruitful as the Council green-lit the signature of the deal.
France, Germany, Poland push for swift EU-India free trade deal
Euractiv, AFP, January 08, 2026
A rapid signing of a free trade deal between India and the EU would be a “decisive step” in relations, according to the French foreign ministry.
HAINAN
China bets on province the size of Belgium to reshape global trade
EuroNews, January 02, 2026
Following the new laws passed in December 2025, Hainan is now a separate customs zone, making it the world’s largest free trade port by area.
Registered foreign trade entities in Hainan FTP exceed 100,000
People's Daily, January 15, 2026
The number of foreign trade entities registered in south China’s Hainan Free Trade Port (FTP) has surpassed 100,000, according to customs data released on Wednesday. From Dec. 18, 2025, to Jan. 10, 4,709 new entities were registered, reflecting a rapid expansion.
WHAT CAUGHT OUR EYE: CURRENT RESEARCH AND COMMENTS
The US strikes Venezuela: Consequences for Ukraine and Europe
EPC, January 03, 2026
Chris Kremidas-Courtney argues in a flash analysis for the European Policy Centre (EPC) that the USA is increasingly reverting to a kind of Monroe Doctrine, focusing on its immediate geographical sphere of influence while leaving traditional allies on the fence, either disengaging from those alliances or making them more transactional and fragile.
Venezuela: the upending of values and another warning to Europe
Bruegel, January 05, 2026
For Alicia García-Herrero at Bruegel, the US intervention in Venezuela creates both potential gains and losses for China. On the one hand, it signals further US disengagement from the Pacific and Europe, allowing China to portray itself as a more law-abiding great power. On the other, it means losing access to cheap oil and critical raw materials.
Europe’s next watershed – how liberal Europe should react to Trump 2.0
EPC, January 09, 2026
For Fabian Zuleeg and Janis A. Emmanouilidis, the Trump 2.0 administration and its extreme return to the “America first” doctrine will create immense challenges for the EU, including threats to intervene on European territory and an overall disdain for international rights and the values for which the EU stands.
Pushing China out of Venezuela won’t be easy
CEPS, January 08, 2026
Ceren Ergenc makes the case that while it initially seemed that Trump’s attack in Venezuela could be seen as a political and strategic loss for China, the material and economic gains China derived from the Latin American country were limited enough not to damage its energy security. This is made even more true by the fact that Venezuela’s oil extraction still largely depends on Chinese technology.
Greenland: Europe must act now to stave off Trump’s temptation
BIG, January 08, 2026
As Greenland has officially become a “national security priority for the United States”, Claude-France Arnould over at Brussels Institute for Geopolitics (BIG) writes that Europe should swiftly act to increase European security in Greenland, with military headquarters independent of American influence.
How Trump is making China great again—and what it means for Europe
ECFR, January 15, 2026
According to Timothy Garton Ash, Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard, Trump’s USA may have inadvertently benefited China by pushing especially non-Western countries to view it more positively. This shift in perception is increasingly reaching the EU and other Western countries dissatisfied with America’s aggressively renewed Monroe Doctrine.
Watching China in Europe – January 2026
GMF, January 06, 2026
For Noah Barkin, the USA’s new “opportunistic imperialism” will have strong implications for EU-China relations, as the EU is likely to roll out more protectionist measures.
Chatham House Director Bronwen Maddox warns ‘This does mark the end of the Western
alliance’
Chatham House, January 13, 2026
Bronwen Maddox makes the case that the USA’s new international policy amounts to a revolution for the Western Alliance, one that will continue to upend the current world order and create further competition with other superpowers such as China.
EVENS
Over the past two weeks, the ICES has actively participated in a series of events. We are delighted to share some of our insights:
On the 12th of January, The European Policy Centre (EPC) organised a
webinar on Europe in 2026 focusing on the need for strategic choices. Almut Möller,
Fabian Zuleeg and Janis Emmanouilidis discussed the priorities for the European Union
(EU), chief among them what the EU’s reaction to events in Venezuela, Greenland, and
Iran should be, along with comments on the EU–Mercosur trade deal and the Ukraine
proposed Peace Plan.
On the same day, EPC organised a hybrid
policy dialogue looking at the future of Ukraine considering the vacuum left by the USA and
its new security priorities as detailed in the US National Security Strategy 2025.
On Wednesday 14 January, Carnegie Europe hosted a webinar with Nathalie Tocci and Jan Techau as guests, moderated by Carnegie Europe’s director Rosa Balfour, to try and answer the following question: “Can Europe Ever Trust the United States Again?”
ICES was honoured to have its Executive Director Mr Yang Li be a guest speaker at Beijing Foreign Studies University’s event on Friday 16 January and its panel on discourse-building based on Knowledge Innovation.
CONTACT WITH US
If you want to stay informed on our events and publications do not hesitate to visit our website and follow us on social media:
Linkedin: Institute for China-Europe Studies (ICES)
Website: ices-eu.org
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Please note that all news and views cited in this bulletin, if not otherwise indicated, do not represent the position of ICES.