Dear ICES friends,
We are delighted to present the latest issue of our biweekly newsletter.
Few relations are as crucial and valuable as the ones - past, present, and future - connecting
Europe and China. At ICES, we believe that regular knowledge-sharing can be the bedrock that empowers
mutually beneficial partnerships and the foundation for fruitful collaborations. Every first and
third week of the month, we highlight the latest developments and fresh ideas across various fields
to enhance cross-continental communication and understanding. We invite you to explore the key
news highlights, insights, and top event recommendations from the past two weeks.
The ICES Takeaway from this Edition
While one might have expected Beijing-Brussels tensions to cool as the summer recess
begins in the Belgian capital, any recent respite has proved short-lived.
Even if the new Trade and Investment Consultation Mechanism will likely lead to more
meetings and ministerial visits between the two sides, top officials from DG Trade and
President von der Leyen's cabinet have expressed their distrust over dialogue only,
calling instead for reinforced trade defence tools and a special task force to ready the
EU for a potential trade war with China in October. Recent anti-dumping probes into
Chinese 'Pekin Duck' and EV batteries, combined with sharp EU statements on the South
China Sea, have further strained the Brussels-Beijing dialogue. Meanwhile, member states
that traditionally favour a softer approach toward China, most notably Germany, are
increasingly aligning with the Commission's firmer stance.
This edition of the Newsletter Bulletin also explores how European industries are
navigating 'Made in Europe' initiatives amid growing fears of supply chain bottlenecks.
Ultimately, consumers may bear the brunt of any trade friction through higher prices, a
reality already highlighted by the recent rush for Chinese-made air conditioning units
during the heatwave.
Ultimately, a summer cooling of EU-China relations remains unlikely. Tempers, rhetoric,
and retaliatory measures continue to run hot, even as experts like Martin Sandbu point
out that European industry is adapting to the shifting trade landscape better than
expected, and Goldman Sachs urges Brussels to focus on boosting exports rather than
narrowing its trade gap with Beijing.
The past two weeks also highlighted that targeted, expert-level communication is still
highly effective at fostering mutual understanding, finding common ground and uncovering
new avenues for EU-China cooperation.
ICES wishes you a pleasant read of this edition!
NEWS ROUND
THE WEEKS' HIGHLIGHTS: PROGRESS AND PITFALLS
Europe Learns It's Hard to Start a Trade War With China During a Heat Wave
WSJ,
July 01, 2026
As citizens in Europe rushed to buy Chinese air conditioners Chinese state media was quick to point out inexpensive Chinese goods are sought after by European consumers in contrast to efforts to 'de-risk' by Brussels.
EU to probe Chinese Pekin duck imports as market-flooding row hots up
EuroNews and
Global Times,
July 09, 2026
Following a complaint from EU producers, the Commission launched an investigation into Chinese Peking duck, in a move that could reignite tensions between the two blocs. A Global Times editorial referred to the EU as 'insecure' and questioned the impartiality and necessity of the investigation.
EU-CHINA RELATIONS
EU car industry clashes over strategy to fight Chinese competitors
EuroNews,
July 02, 2026
While the European Association of Automotive Suppliers recently welcomed the European Commission's Made in Europe strategy, the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association is advocating for a different approach.
European companies 'becoming more reliant on China, not less', EU chamber chief says
SCMP,
July 02, 2026
For the head of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, there is now an increased dependence on China, and European firms need to embed themselves in supply chains to stay competitive, running counter to the EU's strategy on the matter.
Officials skeptical of EU push to reset China trade amid retaliation fears
The Japan Times,
July 02, 2026
Member states and officials in the EU are not confident the 27-nations bloc will be able to act coherently and agree on which steps to take to counter the trade surplus from China.
EU Raises Fresh Trade Barriers on China as €360bn Deficit Fuels Deindustrialisation
The Eastern Herald,
July 02, 2026
On 1st July, the EU imposed new trade restrictions on China including on duty-free steel quotas and mandating a 'a three-euro customs charge on small parcels shipped directly to European consumers from Chinese platforms.'
EU launches anti-dumping probe into Chinese battery imports
Anadolu Agency,
July 02, 2026
A new anti-dumping investigation was launched by the European Commission on imports of primary alkaline manganese dioxide batteries from China.
Europe growth hit more by China exports than bigger trade gap, Goldman says
Reuters,
July 02, 2026
For the Goldman Sachs, the EU's growth impediment comes more from losing market share to China in exports rather than the trade deficit between the two actors.
German government pledges to defend trade, signalling tougher China stance
SCMP,
July 03, 2026
The ruling coalition in Germany signed a 34-point pledge meant to protect the Germany's struggling economy, and while not mentioning China by name, aimed to protect the German industry from Chinese competition.
EU imposes anti-dumping duties on Chinese tyres
Reuters,
July 09, 2026
Anti-dumping duties on tyres for cars and lighter trucks and buses from China have been imposed by the European Commission with rates ranging from 4.3% to 45.3%.
EU drafts 'Buy European' rules for public tenders to curb foreign dependence
Reuters,
July 09, 2026
According to a draft document seen by Reuters, new EU procurement rules in strategic sectors could allow the European authorities to disregard public contract bids with less than 50% of European content and instead favour European companies.
China finds a more pragmatic Nordic reception on rare diplomatic tour
Euractiv,
July 10, 2026
In a diplomatic tour of the Nordic countries of Europe, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hoped to secure more pragmatic relations with countries that have been distrustful of China in recent years.
EU prepares economic protection measures in case of trade war with China
The Brussels Times,
July 11, 2026
According to Bloomberg, the Commission is working on a 'solidarity instrument' so that companies reduce their reliance on essential goods coming from China, and to lessen the consequences of any potential retaliation from the Asian nation.
China's auto shipments to EU surge, but could be near their peak: European analysts
SCMP,
July 12, 2026
The combination of new trade-defence measures imposed by Brussels on Chinese automotive products including plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and the newfound tougher stance of Germany towards China might halt the current surge of Chinese car imports.
14 nations and the EU reaffirm 2016 ruling invalidating China's claims in South
China Sea triggering strong protest from China
AP,
Reuters and
Global Times,
July 12, 2026
A group of 14 nations including the USA and the UK (joined by the EU in a separate statement) issued a joint statement rejecting the 'destabilizing' actions in the South China Sea and reaffirming the July 2016 arbitration ruling by the Arbitral Tribunal constituted under the Convention on the Law of the Sea. China's foreign ministry reacted by asking Europe to be more careful with its phrasing on the South China Sea and to not endorse what it sees as an 'illegal ruling.'
Germany: Merz calls for monetary policy dialogue with China
DW,
July 13, 2026
'We are now trying to steer the dialogue with China toward a solution ... an attempt to persuade China to allow its own currency to float freely, including in the context of competition in the capital markets,' Merz declared at a speech at the Adenauer School of Government.
Cutting China reliance would cost the west $23tn, research suggests
Financial Times,
July 13, 2026
The Consultancy EY-Parthenon estimated that in order to replicate the supply chains and accompanying hard and soft infrastructure currently reliant on China would 'cost the US $13.7tn, the Eurozone $9.1tn and the UK $800bn by 2050.'
China's monthly car exports surge past 1mn for first time
Financial Times,
July 14, 2026
June saw China's car exports go past the 1 million units' mark, as tensions with the EU could increase in the midst of an overall surge of exports towards the 27-nations bloc.
EU signals emergency import curbs after dramatic growth in Chinese trade gap
SCMP and
EuroNews,
July 14, 2026
Denis Redonnet, the EU's deputy director general for Trade, announced that that new emergency measures may be put in place by the EU soon to face China's export surge, saying that 'dialogue alone will not suffice.'
EU readies crisis team for China rare earths stand-off
Financial Times,
July 15, 2026
The European Commission is forming a task force to prepare itself for a potential trade war with China in October, as the European bloc fears new rare earth exports might be reapplied.
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE AND REGIONAL ISSUES SELECTED BY THE ICES
Poll: Europeans are torn between America and China
Politico,
July 02, 2026
A poll shared with Politico displays very mixed feelings in Europe towards America and China as eight countries seem to lean towards more sustained relations with China compared to nine for the USA and seven undecided.
Ratify Mercosur or risk losing South America to China, Uruguay warns EU
EuroNews,
July 07, 2026
In an interview for Euronews, the Foreign Minister of Uruguay, Mario Lubetkin called for the EU to step up in Latin America by ratifying the EU-Mercosur trade agreement. According to him, were the EU not to move fast enough, Latin America would be tempted to grow closer to China or other global powers.
EU curbs on Chinese components risk halting renewables rollout in poorer
countries, industry warns
Reuters,
July 09, 2026
Companies and investors have warned the European Commission that the announced blocked EU funding for inverters used in solar, wind and battery tech, would slow down the expansion of those industries in Eastern and Central Europe.
Global EV demand rises again as Europe offsets China, U.S. weakness
Reuters,
July 10, 2026
The demand for EV rose globally in June, with strong sales numbers in Europe, as the ones in China and North Ameria are not growing as fast as they used to.
Zelenskyy: China urged Putin not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine
Politico,
July 10, 2026
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters that China has advocated to Russia not to use nuclear weapons after Ukraine sent strikes within the Russian territory.
EU submits three papers to advance WTO reform discussions
European Commission,
July 14, 2026
The European Union submitted three papers to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on how to reform its work, in support of the new phase of the WTO reform process as discussions among members become more substantive.
Saving Europe's steel strains critical friendships abroad
Politico,
July 14, 2026
The recent steel instrument put in place by the EU to protect the domestic industry from China surprised business partners, including countries in Asia lamenting the stubbornness of the EU in free trade agreements' negotiations, when the EU is supposed to be 'leader of the rules-based trading system.'
Ukraine to buy Chinese drone parts with EU funds
Financial Times,
July 15, 2026
Kyiv has been allowed to use EU defence loans' funds to buy drone components from China for up to €6bn.
WHAT CAUGHT OUR EYE AND ICES CONTRIBUTIONS: CURRENT RESEARCH AND COMMENTS
Europe must really confront China now: delay is no longer an option
EUISS,
July 02, 2026
Steven Everts weighs in on EU's China policy, arguing that Europe lacks a clear strategic orientation when it comes to China, and should act much faster on concrete steps, with tariffs, European preference and the protection of European companies, playing 'hardball. Just as China does.'
China's air-conditioned lesson for Europe's killer heat wave
Asia Times,
July 04, 2026
Y. Tony Yang argues that the scramble in Europe for Chinese-made AC unites illustrate the fact that climate change adaptation was both too slow in Europe and too enmeshed with geopolitical considerations that further dangerously complicated access to what has become health infrastructure.
EU should learn from China's energy tech, say heads of 2 of France's largest power
firms
SCMP,
July 06, 2026
Bernard Fontana and Patrick Pouyanné, the respective heads of Electricité de France and Total Energies in France, make the case that China could give methodological help and efficiency advice to European companies on energy tech matters.
MERICS Data Insight: Chinese export prices
MERICS,
July 06, 2026
Esther Goreichy looks at the contrast between China moving up the export value chain and the comparatively very low rise of average price per ton up, something that European consumers may benefit from but that will only intensify competitive pressure on European companies and industries.
Steel is the test case for dealing with China's overcapacity
Euractiv,
July 06, 2026
Alicia García Herrero reflects on Chinese steel overcapacity, the proposed tool by the EU to face it, and the reasons why it probably cannot be extended to other sectors even if it works. Indeed, retaliation in one sector is one thing, but propagating it to several at once would hurt the EU's economy, raise prices for other industries using those products and risk going against WTO rules.
Europe does not need new trade weapons – it needs to pull the trigger
EUISS,
July 07, 2026
Tim Rühlig comments on the very limited success of the EU's trade weapons' use so far and suggests not creating new ones, bur rather increasing the deterrence power of the existing ones through easier to trigger mechanisms.
Competing for inputs: how the European Union can improve critical raw materials
supply security
Bruegel,
July 09, 2026
Madalena Barata da Rocha and Camille Reverdy analyse the EU's critical raw materials projects, finding the current ones are lacking in terms of both targets and already measurable trade effects. What has worked best seems to be instead provisions in trade agreements.
Europe's 'China shock' panic is ill-informed
Financial Times,
July 09, 2026
Martin Sandbu comments that Europe is 'panicking about China,' as imports of goods from China may have risen drastically in recent years, but imports from other countries have fallen, offsetting the supposed import surge in the EU that would threaten its industrial sectors.
EU isn't just selling aircraft to China. It's helping strengthen a competitor
SCMP,
July 12, 2026
Tang Meng Kit points out that China's long-term aviation strategy based on technology transfer and standards-settings might benefit Airbus' short term commercial gains but will accentuate Beijing's autonomy and industrial advantage in the long run.
The presence of Chinese automakers in the EU car market
Transport & Environment,
July 13, 2026
Lucien Mathieu and Ludovico Machet list out the positive impacts of the EU's EV tariffs for the European industry and where they fell short. Their main point is that while the EU's EV tariffs allowed for a drop of made-in-China BEV sales, encouraged production in Europe, they did not keep battery exports from the Asian nation to keep on rising fast (seven fold increase from 2020 to 2025), the Chinese EVs from being much cheaper, hybrid vehicles from being imported from China massively into Europe and legacy car factories in the 27-nations bloc to be at risk.
EVENTS
Over the past two weeks, the ICES has actively participated in a series of events. We are delighted to share some of our insights:
On 03 July 2026, the Institute for China-Europe Studies hosted a webinar 'From Hormuz to High Seas Governance: New Challenges for the International Law of the Sea and China-EU Responses.'
The webinar explored what role the EU and China could play in upholding and adapting the international legal order for the oceans, with speakers emphasising the recent geo-politicisation of maritime issues, noting how the Strait of Hormuz's crisis highlighted the gap between law and practice. The dichotomy between sovereignty and freedom requirements of coastal and user states was also underlined.
Speakers recognised that while the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) was still necessary, it should be updated with new implementing legislation and more technical rules, taking into account new developments and challenges. Overall, the speakers agreed on the practical value of legal certainty and continued dialogue between Europe and China, even without full agreement.
On 09 July 2026, the European Policy Centre (EPC) hosted a webinar titled 'What does the Ankara NATO Summit mean for Europe's security?'
Participants discussed the outcome of the NATO's summit in Ankara that took place on 7-8 July, its historical nature, the limited successes the European countries took out of it, how the war in Ukraine changed the role of the EU within NATO and what the 'European Pillar' might look like.
On 09 July 2026, Bruegel convened a hybrid panel discussion on 'A geoeconomic strategy for Europe: building clean technology partnerships.'
The discussion started with a presentation of CTPI flagship report before delving into a discussion between a cabinet expert from the European Commission, Bruegel's own expert on the matter and the Ambassador of Canada to the EU. Participants agreed the EU needed to act faster on clean technology industry support and partnerships, including with Canada.
On 09 July 2026, Chatham House organised its annual London Conference, which included a panel on 'China and the World Order: Challenger, Architect or Both?'
The panel considered whether China is seeking to challenge the existing international order, reshape it from within, or assume a larger role as the United States retreats from global governance. Yu Jie, David Lubin and Shao Yuqun joined the discussion, chaired by James Kynge. Rather than presenting China as a replacement for the United States, the speakers described a country testing new forms of influence while remaining constrained by domestic priorities, economic imbalances and limited international followership.
On 13 July 2026, the Jacques Delors Institute and the Mission of China to the European Union welcomed participants for its event titled: 'A Just Transition to Zero-Carbon Maritime Transport: EU-China Cooperation and Innovation in Maritime Transport.'
Participants underscored the recent unprecedented global heatwaves, and the very much needed decarbonisation of maritime transport through joint EU-China efforts. Speakers also highlighted the strong high-level cooperation on those topics between the two sides, the need for harmonised deep-sea shipping standards, fuel certification, infrastructure investments, and overall pragmatic cooperation.
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Please note that all news and views cited in this bulletin, if not otherwise indicated, do not represent the position of ICES.