Dear ICES friends,
We are delighted to present the latest issue of our bi-weekly newsletter. break.
Few relations are as crucial and valuable as the ones - past, present and future - connecting Europe
and China. At ICES, we believe that regular knowledge-sharing can be the bedrock that empowers
mutually beneficial partnerships and the foundation for fruitful collaborations. Every second and
last week of the month, we highlight the latest developments and fresh ideas across various fields
to enhance cross-continental communication and understanding. We invite you to explore the key
news highlights, insights, and top event recommendations from the past two weeks.
The ICES' Takeaway from this Edition
Since the EU-China summit in July 2025, relations have displayed both renewed engagement and
visible tensions. High-level climate diplomacy emerged as a bright spot, with China’s former
climate envoy Xie Zhenhua and EU officials planning meetings in Brussels to revive UN
climate negotiations ahead of COP30. The announced Chinese delegation visit to the European
Parliament mirrors such diplomatic efforts. At the same time, the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin and the military parade in Beijing drew European
attention, particularly to the joint appearance of Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un alongside
Xi Jinping. China used this moment to announce its new initiative on global governance and
to host a series of high-level interactions, signalling Beijing’s vision for the future
world order. In parallel, the European “coalition of the willing” confirmed security
guarantees to Ukraine, underscoring a sharp contrast between Brussels’ and Beijing’s
priorities and highlighting the divergent strategic and geopolitical realities each side
faces.
Furthermore, the following developments highlighted the persistence of deeper bilateral issues:
EU companies continued to report severe delays in obtaining rare earth export licences despite
China’s earlier pledges, while Beijing imposed preliminary anti-dumping duties of up to 62% on
EU pork imports in apparent retaliation for EU tariffs on Chinese EVs. Von der Leyen’s State
of the Union address mentioned the EU's competition with China, reflecting a critical European
approach. Most EU states, except Slovakia’s and Hungary’s ministers, were absent from the Beijing
parade, further illustrating the diplomatic atmosphere.
Nevertheless, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s September trip to Austria, Slovenia, and
Poland served as an overture, seeking to deepen cooperation in a multipolar world. These
developments collectively show that while friction is growing in trade and security, both
sides still see a need for dialogue and mutual understanding to stabilise EU-China
relations within an evolving global order.
NEWS ROUND
THE WEEKS' HIGHLIGHTS: PROGRESS & PITFALLS
Von der Leyen softens tone as EU seeks China’s help on Ukraine war and climate
South China Morning Post, September 25, 2025
Following a meeting between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Chinese Premier Li Qiang in New York, both sides committed to working together to address global challenges, including climate and biodiversity issues, as well as the war in Ukraine.
EU plans 25% to 50% tariffs on Chinese steel, related products, Handelsblatt reports
Reuters, September 26, 2025
According to senior officials in Brussels, the European Commission plans to impose tariffs ranging from 25% to 50% on Chinese steel and related products in the coming weeks.
EU-CHINA RELATIONS
Why the European Union won’t hit China with the 100% tariffs that Trump wants
Euronews, September 16, 2025
Donald Trump urged the EU to impose tariffs of 50% to 100% on China, coupled with demands to end purchases of Russian oil, as part of a joint Ukraine strategy. The EU responded positively to ending Russian fossil fuel imports. However, it will not follow the US request for additional tariffs due to the EU’s differentiation between tariffs and sanctions, its risks, and the lack of political consensus.
EU chamber in China flags manufacturing maladies, urging course correction in 5-year
plan
South China Morning Post, September 17, 2025
The European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, EUCCC, published its annual position paper, stating that China’s 5-year plan for 2026–2030 should shift towards a “new, productive development model” and address the “root cause of involution”.
EU companies hit by renewed delays to Chinese rare earths licences
Financial Times, September 17, 2025
The EU Chamber of Commerce in China confirmed that European companies are experiencing renewed delays obtaining Chinese rare earth export licences. While the issue shortly improved after the summit in July, companies are again struggling to obtain licences.
China urges EU to resolve mutual trade concerns through dialogue
Xinhua, September 18, 2025
Reacting to questions concerning current trade tensions and China’s anti-dumping investigation, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged the European Commission to work together to create an open and stable market environment for industries. Spokesperson He Yadong highlighted full compliance of Chinese investigations with WTO rules and the unreasonable and non-compliant EU investigation process.
Spain’s China Diplomacy Defended by Cuerpo as Tackling Trade Gap
Bloomberg UK, September 19, 2025
Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo defended Spain’s engaging China diplomacy. He emphasised that it is conducted in coordination with the EU and necessary to reduce the European deficit and technological gap.
EU hammers Putin and charms Trump by targeting China, India in new Russia sanctions
Politico, September 19, 2025
The European Commission announced that it would target more Chinese and Indian entities in a new sanctions package against Russia. These measures include tighter export controls on chemicals, metal components, salts, and ores, as well as business with refineries, oil traders, and petrochemical companies in third countries.
Poland border closure choking China–EU rail trade
Asia Times, September 19, 2025
Following Russian drone incursions, Poland’s refusal to reopen its border with Belarus is leading to disruptions in EU-Chinese trade. Due to the closure of the Małaszewicze crossing, China–Europe Railway Express traffic has been halted, which has increased tensions between China and the EU.
World’s first China–Europe Arctic express route opens at China’s Ningbo-Zhoushan Port
Global Times, September 22, 2025
The launch of the world’s first China–Europe Arctic express route introduces the fastest container shipping route between China and Europe’s main base ports. Starting from the Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, cargo can now be shipped to the UK within only 18 days by crossing the Arctic Ocean.
EU business leader cautions on rapid growth of Chinese exports to Europe
Euronews, September 24, 2025
EUCCC President Jens Eskelund urged that China “needs to focus on how to get back to a situation where demand and supply are better aligned”. Warning of Chinese trade diversion to Europe, he identified three main drivers behind the export surge: competitiveness of Chinese firms, the weaker Chinese currency, and strong state support.
EU said to be preparing to hit China with 20 new anti-dumping probes
South China Morning Post, September 26, 2025
Former European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmström confirmed the EU’s preparations for about 20 anti-dumping investigations in a variety of fields targeting China, aiming to increase European trade defences.
GLOBAL GOVERNANCE INSIGHTS SELECTED BY THE ICES
China’s defence minister urges greater unity to avoid ‘law of the jungle’
Reuters, September 18, 2025
Opening the 12th Beijing Xiangshan Forum on security, under this year’s theme “Upholding International Order and Promoting Peaceful Development”, China’s defence minister Dong Jun confirmed Chinese efforts to reshape global governance, especially amid an increasingly divided world. Warning against global chaos, hegemony, protectionism, and “obsession with absolute superiority in military strength”, he urged choosing dialogue and highlighted China’s (military) role in seeking peace.
80th UN General Assembly: EU renews commitment to multilateralism
European Commission, September 23, 2025
The high-level EU delegation participated in the 80th UN General Assembly, renewing its commitment to multilateralism, deepening partnerships and mobilising collective action for peace, security, and sustainable development.
China to relinquish WTO privileges in show of support for multilateral trade
South China Morning Post, September 24, 2025
Chinese Premier Li Qiang has announced that China, as “a responsible major developing country”, will not seek special and differential treatment for developing countries in future WTO engagements. This underlines efforts to defend the multilateral trade system amid current US policies.
G7 weighs price floors for rare earths to counter China’s dominance, sources say
Reuters, September 25, 2025
Following Chinese rare earth export controls and mechanisms, the EU and G7 members are considering price floors to promote rare earth production, as well as (carbon) taxes on some Chinese exports. The G7 technical teams met this month to discuss measures aimed at preventing rare earth price dumping.
China Tightens EV Export Rules With Permits Required in 2026
Bloomberg, September 26, 2025
Starting January 1, Chinese automakers will need permits to export EVs. Following China’s Ministry of Commerce, this is intended to contribute to China’s efforts to promote a “healthy development” of the EV industry.
China calls EU hypocritical over criticism of climate goal
Reuters, September 27, 2025
EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra had evaluated China’s newly announced climate plans, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7%–10% by 2035, as falling short and making it harder to reach global targets. In response, China’s foreign ministry accused the EU of “double standards and selective blindness”, while pointing out European slow action on its own climate targets.
China illuminates the way forward at UNGA
CGTN, September 27, 2025
Chinese Premier Li Qiang’s address to the UN General Assembly marked the UN’s 80th anniversary with a call to defend multilateralism against rising unilateralism, protectionism, and bloc politics, while reaffirming China’s role as a builder of peace, a contributor to development, and a defender of the international order. He highlighted China’s global initiatives as a roadmap for cooperation and pledged that China’s openness and growth would create shared opportunities for the world.
China’s new K visa beckons foreign tech talent as US hikes H-1B fee
Reuters, September 29, 2025
China’s new visa programme aims to attract foreign young STEM graduates. Portraying China as a country welcoming foreign investment and talent, tech talent is welcomed with the K visa, which allows entry, residence and employment without a job offer, while Washington has just raised barriers for the H-1B visa.
ICES-NOTED REGIONAL ISSUES
The Draghi report: one year on
European Commission, September 16, 2025
Shortly after the 2025 State of the Union address, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Professor Mario Draghi opened a high-level conference to assess the Commission’s progress on the recommendations of Draghi’s report on Europe’s competitiveness. While acknowledging some improvements, he criticised the EU for its slow progress and called for a unified “28th regime”.
EU sets out new strategy to reinforce prosperity and security with India
European Commission, September 17, 2025
The EU adopted a joint Communication outlining a “New Strategic EU–India Agenda” as a milestone in EU–India relations. It outlines the EU’s strategic vision for enhancing cooperation by identifying five areas of shared interest and complementary strengths, improving this partnership “rooted in shared interests and guided by common values” in times of global uncertainties. Further, President Ursula von der Leyen confirmed the EU’s commitment to finalising our Free Trade Agreement by the end of the year.
Chinese and Philippine ships collide near disputed shoal in South China Sea
The Associated Press, September 17, 2025
The Chinese coast guard accused a Philippine ship of deliberately ramming a Chinese vessel near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The Philippines denied these accusations, highlighting the Chinese use of water cannons against Philippine vessels.
No clarity on TikTok sale after Trump–Xi phone call
Politico, September 19, 2025
Following China’s official readout of the call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, a deal to transfer TikTok into US–American ownership has not been finalised. The conflicting signals from both sides after the call underscore the uncertainty surrounding TikTok’s fate, with U.S. lawmakers warning of national security concerns.
WHAT CAUGHT OUR EYE: CURRENT RESEARCH AND COMMENTS
Geopolitical shifts, and their economic impacts on Europe: Short-term risks,
medium-term scenarios and policy choices
Bruegel, September 18, 2025
The latest Bruegel report, authored by André Sapir, Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, evaluates the short-term consequences and develops scenarios for 2030–2035 based on the geopolitical and economic shifts Europe has faced over the last decade. It pictures a 2035 world marked by continued US–China rivalry, great-power multipolarity, waning European expectations and competition to enhance international stability and cooperation.
What China Doesn’t Want
Foreign Affairs, September 19, 2025
David C. Kang, Jackie S. L. Wong, and Zhenjiao T. Chao warn that the US’s dramatic misperception of China as a revisionist power leads to unnecessary tension. China is analysed as primarily a status quo power focused on internal stability, historical territorial integrity, and economic development. They argue that diplomacy and engagement would better manage competition and maintain regional stability.
After Establishing the Huangyan Island Nature Reserve, What Comes Next?
Guancha, September 21, 2025
According to the comment of Dr Wu Shicun, Chairman of the Hainan Center for Maritime Cooperation and Ocean Governance, China’s establishment of a national nature reserve at Huangyan Island is presented as a step to protect the marine environment and biodiversity while also reinforcing awareness of the area. He states that framing the move in ecological terms underscores a responsible approach and builds on last year’s announcement of irregular war baselines. At the same time, he notes that future developments will depend on how regional states, particularly the Philippines and its partners, respond, as misjudgments could heighten tensions.
How Europe’s Global Gateway Competes With China’s BRI
E-International Relations, September 22, 2025
The EIR opinion piece by Stefan Messingschlager outlines the EU’s Global Gateway as a high-standards, governance-driven alternative to China’s BRI, by delivering results, prioritising corridor-based investments, managing risk effectively, and measuring outcomes. The EU can compete through value and quality, particularly in quality and trust, and can answer Beijing’s large-scale BRI.
China can decarbonise the world – but even that won’t fix its overcapacity problem
Bruegel, September 24, 2025
Ariel Branco Tavares and Neus Truyol summarise China’s role in the global green transition as crucial due to its greenhouse gas reductions and its leadership in green technologies. However, China must increase investment in power infrastructure, and the issue of Chinese overcapacity in renewables, as well as the subsequent dumping of subsidised green technology on the global market, needs to be addressed.
China’s Claim to a New World Order
SWP, September 26, 2025
In the SWP Commentary by Nadège Grabowski and Maximilian Mayer, the Chinese Global Governance Initiative is evaluated as supporting China’s vision of a “community with a shared future for mankind”. This Chinese vision of a new world order, based on development, security, civilisation, and governance, needs to be deciphered as a potential strategic challenge.
EVENS
Over the past two weeks, the ICES has actively participated in a series of events. We are delighted to share some of our insights:
On September 17, the European Think-Tank Network on China held an in-person discussion on their 10th anniversary report, "Quest for Strategic Autonomy? Europe Grapples with the US–China Rivalry". Hosted by the Egmont Institute, the event brought together ETNC analysts and experts to discuss the issues raised in the report.
EuroHub4Sino’s Community Building Conference, "How Do We Engage with China in the 'New Era'?", held on September 23, was structured around two panels and provided a diverse audience with the opportunity to discuss engagement and collaboration issues and opportunities with China.
On September 30, the European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS) hosted the EU–China Forum on "The Future of EU–China Relations: What Is Next?". Two panels on economic and trade relations, as well as people-to-people exchanges and higher education cooperation, brought together experts from China and Europe and drew a roadmap for future pathways of collaboration and engagement.
CONTACT WITH US
If you want to stay informed on our events and publications do not hesitate to visit our website and follow us on social media:
Linkedin: Institute for China-Europe Studies (ICES)
Website: ices-eu.org
If you are interested in publishing your article on our website, email us at: info@ices-eu.org info@ices-eu.org, with the Subject 'Article Submission_Name_Surname'.
Thank you for being a part of our newsletter community! We appreciate your continued support and engagement. Stay tuned for more exciting updates in our upcoming editions. If you have any suggestions or feedback, we would love to hear from you.
Please note that all news and views cited in this bulletin, if not otherwise indicated, do not represent the position of ICES.