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Dear ICES friends,

We are delighted to present the newest issue of our bi-weekly newsletter.

Few relations are as crucial and valuable as the ones - past, present and future - connecting Europe and China. At the ICES, we believe that regular knowledge-sharing can be the bedrock that empowers mutually beneficial partnerships and the foundation for fruitful collaborations. Every first and third week of the month, we highlight the latest developments and fresh ideas across various fields to enhance cross-continental communication and understanding. We invite you to explore the key news highlights, insights, and top event recommendations from the past two weeks.

The ICES' Takeaway from this Edition

Over the past two weeks, hopes for a diplomatic reset ahead of the upcoming EU–China summit have been further diminished. The more conciliatory tone adopted earlier this year shifted to sharp rhetoric, as exemplified by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s recent warning of a new “China shock.” The EU’s formal cancellation of the High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue signalled growing frustration over the lack of substantive progress on issues such as EV subsidy negotiations, rare earths export control, and procurement restrictions. This was compounded by the exposure of a 700 million euros fraud scheme involving Chinese imports through Greece, reinforcing long-standing concerns about economic asymmetry and weak enforcement.

On the positive side, both sides reaffirmed cooperation on climate and financial governance, as seen in the 10th EU–China Ministerial Dialogue on Environment and Climate held in Brussels. These engagements underscore a persistent willingness to collaborate in areas of mutual interest despite overarching political tensions. Together, these developments indicate that while functional engagement remains possible, the EU’s broader China strategy is shifting toward selective cooperation, tighter regulation, and a greater readiness to defend its economic interests. However, uncertainties persist as both the EU and China navigate tense trade negotiations with the United States. This dynamic could either strengthen their incentive to stabilise bilateral relations or introduce new complications.s

NEWS ROUND

THE WEEKS' HIGHLIGHTS: PROGRESS & PITFALLS

EU and China flags

China and EU agree to deepen environmental cooperation at ministerial dialogue
(Chinese State Council, June 17, 2025)

As these weeks' positive development, we want to highlight the renewal of the EU's and China's commitment to environmental cooperation during their 10th environment policy ministerial dialogue. Both sides acknowledged the valuable results achieved within the High-level Environment and Climate Dialogue.

‘A new China shock’: von der Leyen revives hard line on Beijing at G7 summit
(South China Morning Post, June 17, 2025)

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen strongly criticised China during the G7 Summit in Canada, warning that a "new China shock" is underway. Reversing her earlier less-critical tone towards Beijing, she accused China of deliberately creating and weaponising a near-monopoly in the global supply of rare earths.

G7 Summit 2025 with EU and global leaders

EU–CHINA RELATIONS

EU-China Economic and Trade Dialogue

EU Refuses China Meetings Over Trade Spat Before Leaders Summit
(Bloomberg, June 17, 2025)

However, the EU has refused to participate in the EU–China High–Level Economic and Trade Dialogue with China at the end of July.

This decision reportedly stems from a lack of progress in resolving ongoing bilateral trade disputes.

China-based AliExpress breached EU digital rules over illegal products
(Politico, June 18, 2025)

The European Commission stated that, according to preliminary findings, the China-based e–commerce company AliExpress has violated platform rules regarding illegal products. The Commission acknowledged AliExpress' commitment to meet its obligations in other areas of the Digital Services Act. AliExpress will implement new internal and independent monitoring processes and frameworks.

AliExpress app icon
G7 2025 Kananaskis sign

Chinese firms slam von der Leyen’s hawkish anti-Beijing turn
(Euractiv, June 18, 2025; Xinhua, June 18, 2025)

After Ursula von der Leyen's harsh criticisms of Chinese protectionist policies during the G7 summit, the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU criticised her speech as dividing the global economy and distracting from European economic issues. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also expressed strong dissatisfaction, calling her remarks factually inaccurate and steeped in prejudice and double standards.

China committed to resolving trade frictions with EU through dialogue, MOFCOM says on reported EU refusal of economic meeting over rift
(Global Times, June 19, 2025)

Following reports claiming that the EU is refusing to hold an economic meeting with China, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce underlined the importance of bilateral economic and trade relations and communication .

Chinese Ministry of Commerce building
Containers and procurement trade

Commission restricts Chinese participation in medical devices procurement
(European Commission, June 20, 2025)

Following the investigation under the International Procurement Instrument, the European Commission decided to exclude Chinese companies from EU government purchases of medical devices exceeding 5 million euros . Furthermore, no more than 50% of inputs from China are allowed for successful bids.

Chinese FM meets envoys from EU, member states
(Chinese State Council, June 25, 2025; EEAS, June 25, 2025)

The Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with diplomatic envoys from the EU Mission to China in Beijing. They discussed EU–China relations, as well as international and regional hotspots and global governance issues. Wang Yi proposed three points for the future development of China–EU relations: upholding mutual respect, adhering to the established framework of their partnership, and maintaining multilateralism.

Chinese Foreign Minister meets EU envoys
Port of Piraeus, Greece

EU prosecutors uncover criminal scheme involving Chinese imports via Greece
(Reuters, June 26, 2025)

The European Public Prosecutor’s Office uncovered a 700 million euros fraud scheme involving falsified Chinese import documents through the Greek port of Piraeus. Ten suspects were arrested, and authorities seized thousands of items. The scheme involved undervaluing or misclassifying goods to evade customs duties.

Rare earths ‘THE thing’ for EU agenda planners ahead of China leaders’ summit
(South China Morning Post, June 26, 2025)

In the agenda-setting process for the EU–China summit in July, EU leaders will most likely focus on China’s dominance in the global supply of rare earth elements.

Rare earth elements powders
Rare earth mining site

China has begun issuing rare earth export licences to European firms, EU sources say
(South China Morning Post, June 27, 2025)

China has begun issuing export licences for rare earth elements and magnets to European companies . This development undermines the EU's efforts to achieve a structural solution.

GLOBAL GOVERNANCE INSIGHTS SELECTED BY THE ICES

UK and China flags

China may lift sanctions on UK MPs
(The Telegraph, June 16, 2025)

The Chinese government is reviewing its 2021 sanctions on UK parliamentarians, considering lifting them in light of improving relations with the UK.

China’s ‘World Bank’ wants to set up shop in Britain
(Politico, June 23, 2025)

The Beijing-headquartered Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank plans to establish its first European office in London this year. It aims to use the new London office to attract funding for the bank’s global development projects.

AIIB headquarters
NATO summit leaders group photo

After Nato chaos, ‘irrelevant’ Europe shambles towards China summit
(South China Morning Post, June 29, 2025)

Following the NATO summit, European weaknesses in the context of global affairs have become evident again, raising questions about the EU as a truly independent geopolitical player.

‘Goodbye Trump, hello Asia’ is the EU’s new trade strategy. Will it work?
(Politico, June 30, 2025)

Reacting to US–American trade threats, the EU is exploring deepening bridges and partnerships with CPTPP, possibly committing to a “Standstill Agreement” between the 39 EU and CPTPP countries.

Container port representing EU-Asia trade

ICES-NOTED REGIONAL ISSUES

UN flag symbolizing global diplomacy

China says US attack on Iran has damaged its credibility
(Reuters, June 23, 2025)

After the US strikes on Iran, China’s U.N. Ambassador Fu Cong said that the attacks have damaged Washington's credibility both as a country and as a participant in any international negotiations. All parties should restrain the “impulse of force, avoid exacerbating conflicts” and adding fuel to the fire."

Beijing’s ‘massive’ build-up raises threat of Taiwan Strait conflict: Nato chief
(South China Morning Post, June 24, 2025)

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that China's enlarged military presence increases the threat of conflict across the Taiwan Strait and could pull Russia or Europe into the conflict.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte
Modi and Xi Jinping at a summit

PM Modi invited for state dinner, Xi Jinping pulls out of BRICS Summit for the first time in 12 years
(South China Morning Post, June 26, 2025)

Chinese President Xi Jinping is unlikely to attend the upcoming BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro, reportedly due to a scheduling conflict, which will lead to his first absence since taking office. Replacing Xi, Premier Li Qiang is expected to lead the delegation.

Lithuania and the Philippines sign security pact to counter 'authoritarian axis' of China and Russia
(Euronews, June 30, 2025)

The Philippines and Lithuania signed a memorandum of understanding to establish a security alliance, as both countries are increasingly concerned about emerging authoritarian states, such as China and Russia.

Flags of the Philippines and Lithuania

WHAT CAUGHT OUR EYE: CURRENT RESEARCH AND COMMENTS

Cover article: Why losing the US still won't bring Europe closer to China

Why Losing the US Still Won't Bring Europe Closer to China
(9Dashline, June 16, 2025)

Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center's senior fellow Nicholas Bequelin analyses Europe's difficult situation between a strained transatlantic alliance, the war in Ukraine, Chinese overcapacities and the decline of the international liberal order. He concludes that the lack of trust, the awareness of European vulnerabilities and China–Russia relations lead to remaining stable but narrowly defined Sino–European relations.

Greater risks, greater confidence: China’s new national security white paper
(MERICS, June 18, 2025)

The first MERICS China Security and Risk Tracker of 2025 looks into China’s new national security white paper. The white paper presents China’s national security situation as stable due to Xi's concept of comprehensive national security. The primary changes in China's security conception stem from the challenging international environment, the country's economic slowdown, and new technologies. The white paper paints a picture of a confident China poised to continue the “dual miracle” of sustained growth and political stability.

MERICS China Security and Risk Tracker 2025

The charm-shock strategy: How China courts and pressures Europe
(ThinkChina, June 25, 2025)

Prof. Philippe Le Corre, Senior Fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute Center for China Analysis, looks into EU–China relations and a Europe caught in the middle of the US–China rivalry. Thereby, he describes Chinese engagement with Europe as a "charm offensive", while the EU lacks a united response, but mainly looks at economic concerns. Ursula von der Leyen now warns of a new "China shock".

The charm-shock strategy article cover
China’s European bridgehead article cover

China’s European bridgehead
(GIS, June 26, 2025)

Zoltán Kiszelly analyses the role of Hungary for EU–China engagement, underlining its function as a gateway to Europe. He states that Hungary is not planning to decouple from China, but rather to extend market access for Chinese companies.

Couples therapy? EU–China relations hit new low ahead of summit
(Euractiv, June 30, 2025)

As part of a special report on 50 Years of EU–China Relations, Xhoi Zajmi assesses EU–China relations in the lead-up to the July summit. The analysis emphasises rising tensions between the EU and China, diminishing the hopes for a diplomatic reset in the context of 50 years of bilateral diplomatic relations.

EU–China relations hit new low ahead of summit

EVENTS

SWP Conference on European defence autonomy

On June 18, the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) co-organised the third PISM–IRSEM–SWP Conference on European defence autonomy. The conference, titled "The Weimar Triangle and European Autonomy in Defence: how to prepare the EU for potential war(s)?", suggested a Weimar triangle leadership of European defence.

This, according to the panel, could provide the most resilient format to guide European defence with a shared and unifying political will. Further, the war in Ukraine, the upcoming NATO summit, and questions of preparedness and aligning European response mechanisms were discussed.

On June 18, the Heinrich Böll Stiftung's US Briefing "Ties that Bind or Unwind? Transatlantic interdependence and Trump 2.0" questioned the coherence of the Trump administration's decision-making and brought up issues of economic security under the current US administration, which aims to reduce US centrality in international affairs.

It was emphasised that the Chinese currency cannot replace the US Dollar. European leverage and the need to be bold, deepen partnerships, provide leadership in the global economy and improve threat responses were discussed.

Heinrich Böll Stiftung US Briefing on Trump and EU-US relations
Institute for China–Europe Studies BRI vs GGI webinar

On June 19, our Institute for China–Europe Studies' webinar titled "Global Gateway & Belt and Road Initiative: European and Chinese Visions for Global Connectivity" looked into existing and possible cooperation and tensions between the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Global Gateway (GGI) .

The panellists further discussed the strategic interests, values and norms embedded in these initiatives and in which ways they influence global standards in the fields of finance, technology, and sustainability.

The European Policy Centre (EPC) hosted a EU & China Think Tank Dialogue on June 19 and 20, discussing 50 years of diplomatic relations, the future of international cooperation and multilateralism, as well as bilateral technology and trade relations.

European Policy Centre Think Tank Dialogue
MLex trade strategy event

The MLex event on June 25, titled "From US tariffs to a competitive China: Europe's trade strategy of tomorrow", brought together European and Chinese experts to look into European trade issues.

The panel discussed the geopolitical impact on trade and the need for partnerships, as well as reinforced trade defence. Especially the questions of ensuring a rules-based playing field, Chinese overcapacities, rare earth controls, and the need for Chinese investments in critical areas sparked a debate.

On June 26, the webinar on "The Role of the EU and China in a Global Security Dilemma" by us, the Institute for China–Europe Studies, discussed the perceptions of the EU's and China's role in the current global security landscape.

The panellists explored the drivers of securitisation in a multipolar world, evolving NATO dynamics, and vulnerabilities within the EU's security framework. Key challenges, such as structural asymmetries, a lack of trust, regional crises, and the rise of populist movements, were emphasised. Areas of common ground and opportunities for joint efforts to address shared security concerns were explored.

ICES EU-China security webinar

CONTACT WITH US

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Linkedin: Institute for China-Europe Studies (ICES)

Website: ices-eu.org

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Thank you for being a part of our newsletter community! We appreciate your continued support and engagement. Stay tuned for more exciting updates in our upcoming editions. If you have any suggestions or feedback, we would love to hear from you.

Please note that all news and views cited in this bulletin, if not otherwise indicated, do not represent the position of ICES.